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AI Forecasting and Scenario Planning

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CPD Hours: 3 |

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AI Forecasting and Scenario Planning
AI Forecasting and Scenario Planning

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Summary

     

    Overview:

    Finance teams need faster, forward-looking decisions in volatile conditions. This course enhances your existing 13-week forecast with practical data-science steps and a light AI layer. We clean and standardize a bank export, add simple rules to classify transactions, and surface early-warning signals (overdraft days, worst balance, idle-cash proxy). We then show when to plug in forecasting models (Holt-Winters, ARIMA/SARIMA, STL+ETS, Prophet, LightGBM, LSTM) and how to blend them with your baseline using a simple accuracy-weighted ensemble. ChatGPT is used to produce scenario summaries, an assumptions log, and a board one-pager—always from your metrics and verified with three quick checks.

    Prerequisites 
    Maintain a CPA-standard 13-week rolling cash forecast with at least one downside case Excel 2016+ (PC/Mac). Comfortable with Tables, SUMIFS, and VLOOKUP or XLOOKUP.

     

    Course Content:

    In this course, you will gain knowledge about the following topics:

    • Enhanced 13-week forecast with enrichment and signals
    • Mini dashboard (Overdraft Days, Worst Balance, Avg Positive Balance)
    • AI-assisted scenario summary and three board bullets + one decision/ask (verified)
    • Assumptions/overrides log and weekly review cadence
    • Anonymized sample data; workbook with all formulas (VLOOKUP & XLOOKUP) + Google Sheets appendix; solution file checkpoints; ChatGPT prompt sheet; governance checklist; large-font screenshots and PC/Mac keystrokes.

     

    Learning Objectives:

    Upon completing this course, you should be able to:

    • Clean, normalize, and validate a 5-column bank export for analysis. 
    • Add enrichment and signals (Direction, Class ≤5 rules, Confidence, Running Balance, Overdraft Days, Worst Balance, Idle-Cash proxy) and build a mini dashboard. 
    • Select a suitable DS/ML method for their context and blend it with the baseline using a simple accuracy-weighted ensemble. 
    • Use ChatGPT to produce a scenario summary, assumptions log, and three board bullets + one decision/ask, verified by grounding/consistency/no-new-numbers checks. 
    • Document assumptions, overrides, ownership, and a weekly review cadence; understand model limits and governance. 
      • Foundations & Guardrails (privacy; AI checks; outcomes)  
      • Data Readiness: Clean • Normalize • Validate  
      • Lab A: Enrichment (Direction, Class ≤5 rules, Confidence)
      • Signals mini-lesson (why these KPIs matter) 
      • Lab B: Signals & Mini Dashboard (3 KPIs + optional line)
      • Model Menu: when to use Holt-Winters, ARIMA/SARIMA, STL+ETS, Prophet, LightGBM, LSTM; Granger; Ensemble 

     

    Who Will Benefit:

    This course is ideal for finance and accounting professionals—especially CPAs, analysts, controllers, treasury staff, and advisors—who want to strengthen their forecasting skills, responsibly apply AI in their workflows, and improve decision‑making in fast‑changing financial environments.